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Predicting the North Korea Policy of the Obama Administration: A Neo-Perry Process in the Offing?

Kun Young Park

Sogang Institute for East Asian Studies, Sogang University

Published: August 2009 · Vol. 28 No. 2 · pp. 163-191

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33334/sieas.2009..57.163

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to predict the North Korea policy the Obama administration is most likely to pursue during the first two years in office by carefully assessing and evaluating the actions taken and interpreting the statements made by key foreign policy decision makers in the administration. Serious consideration will also be given to structural constraints at various levels under which the Obama administration will have to operate. The paper concludes that when the rocket-launch-created-dust settles down, Obama, out of his conviction for strategic-pragmatism, and political, economic, and strategic necessity, seems likely to make powerful but prudent overtures to North Korea in his early years in office under the Neo-Perry Process framework that reflects years of U.S. experiences with North Korea.
Keywords: The Agreed FrameworkThe Perry ReportThe Neo-Perry ProcessU.S.-DPRK joint communiqué of 2000The July 1 MeasuresHighly Enriched Uranium Program“Strategicpragmatism”