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Research Article

Predicting the North Korea Policy of the Obama Administration: A Neo-Perry Process in the Offing?

박건영

서강대학교 동아연구소

발행: 2009년 8월 · 28권 2호 · pp. 163-191

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33334/sieas.2009..57.163

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초록

The purpose of this paper is to predict the North Korea policy the Obama administration is most likely to pursue during the first two years in office by carefully assessing and evaluating the actions taken and interpreting the statements made by key foreign policy decision makers in the administration. Serious consideration will also be given to structural constraints at various levels under which the Obama administration will have to operate. The paper concludes that when the rocket-launch-created-dust settles down, Obama, out of his conviction for strategic-pragmatism, and political, economic, and strategic necessity, seems likely to make powerful but prudent overtures to North Korea in his early years in office under the Neo-Perry Process framework that reflects years of U.S. experiences with North Korea.
키워드: 북미기본합의페리 보고서신페리프로세스북미공동코뮤니케(2000)7.1조치고농축우라늄프로그램"전략적-실용주의"