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Research Article

Economic Impacts of New Northern Economic Cooperation

Jeong Eun-chan

서강대학교 동아연구소

Published: January 2020 · Vol. 78, No. 0 · pp. 245-292

DOI: https://doi.org/10.33334/sieas.2020.39.1.245

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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the economic effects of the new northern economic cooperation that the current government intends to pursue, and to derive policy implications based on this. The economic ripple effect of the new Northern Economic Cooperation was derived by establishing 10 scenarios based on the 16 key tasks proposed by the Northern Economic Cooperation Committee. As a result, GDP of 0.57 ~ 0.77% is increased in all target projects compared to before implementation, and total consumption is 0.74 ~ 1.88%. The most effective project is the industrial complex creation project, which is thought to be caused by the even support of various industries. However, in all projects except logistics network establishment, it was found to have an effect of reducing domestic private investment by 0.5 ~ 2.4%. This implies that the entry into the North is basically an overseas entry, and therefore, companies' overseas entry may lead to the effect of reducing domestic private investment. However, in the case of logistics network construction, the increase in cargo volume is expected to boost domestic private investment. The policy implications of this study are as follows. First, the results of this study imply that if economic sanctions are imposed on North Korea and a triangular cooperation system with China or Russia is possible, the North Korean economic cooperation can have a positive effect on our economy. Second, among China and Russia, the ripple effect of the policy targeting Russia was greater, which means that economic cooperation with the countries with high potential among the countries with low trade ratio with the existing countries has high It may also have a greater ripple effect than cooperation. Third, the economic ripple effect of eco-friendly cooperation and health care cooperation was relatively low. This is due to structural problems in both industries. The government should make an effort to solve the structural problems of domestic industry when selecting the Northern Economic Cooperation Project.
Keywords: 신북방경제협력경제적 효과삼각협력체제평화조성공동이익